Έλληνας καθηγητής του Yale για κορωνοϊό: Αν τα σχολεία κλείσουν νωρίς, μειώνονται και οι πιθανότητες εξάπλωσης

Detailed modeling of NPI in 2006 @nature paper shows that if school closure is *reactive* (waiting for first case and then closing 100% of schools), with moderately transmissible virus, cumulative cases decline 26% & epidemic peak is delayed 16 days. https://t.co/pSdjUOp1uA 7/

— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) March 4, 2020

So reactive school closure, while rational & helpful, is not enough. In my view, schools should be closed *before* first case in a school, when cases appear in the community or in nearby areas. This is not without costs. But waiting reduces the benefits of #schoolclosure. 8/

— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) March 4, 2020

The *earlier* that schools were closed (ideally even in *advance* of outbreaks) the lower the number of excess deaths in 43 US cities during the 1918 Influenza pandemic. #COVID19 #schoolclosure 4/ pic.twitter.com/e25Bj4AZrt

— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) March 4, 2020