They are rewriting the memorandum for the 50 bil. that don’t exist!

The memorandum is being rewritten on a new basis, with the commitments for the mammoth denationalizations (up to 50 billion over the next 5 years) as a warranty against lenders and faster debt reduction. According to the plan revealed one month ago by protothema.gr, the 50 billion was put on the table as an exchange for extension and reduction of lending rates.

The need and the terms of the renegotiation of the memorandum were finally confirmed by Angela Merkel yesterday, since she acknowledged that «three years are not enough» for Greece and stressed that «rate reduction is possible only by selling public assets».

According to the reportage of protothema.gr, the change in the memorandum terms was being carried out for at least four months now, which were originally more onerous since no substantial groundwork to safeguard the country's lenders preceded the agreement of May, beyond vague references without economic and technical studies for the sale of national land.

However, the new memorandum which is being drafted in Brussels will also draw on the list of privatisations from which there will be revenue of 15 billion by 2013 and 35 by 2015. Based on the new data, both the interest rates and the repayment period of loans will now be reviewed on more favorable terms.

Everybody is a winner!

To maintain the suspense, Greece and Germany are still holding their cards close to their chest for the content of the final agreement after which, eventually, everybody must be a winner.

What Merkel didn’t tell us yesterday, however, is that wages and working relations will lose out, since the Greek achievements and the bases for the Competitiveness Pact that Germany is calling for will be announced at the same time.

On the other hand, what Greece is not yet mentioning is that the 50 bil. do not exist! Even the privatisation of Elliniko is hanging by a thread, since the 5 bil. fro Qatar  regard the overall investment and not the revenue that the State will collect for the land it is granting, as Servaas Deroose seems to believe – according to what he said in a recent interview in Proto Thema.

So from one single investment, the State revenue that will reduce public debt is less than 5 billion. And all this without including the uncertainties caused to the investment by the vague references of minister of State, Haris Pamboukis, who upon returning a few weeks ago from Qatar, avoided saying anything concrete about the project of the Arab investors, providing only "pleasant" promises for the creation of a green space larger than Central Park and of 35.00 employment positions, but keeping secret the actual identity of the investor.

Only if seas and coasts are sold

At the same time, the obstacles in finding a bundle of billions from public property are huge. As protothema.gr revealed, from the moment they were announced, the 50 billion euros will not be found, if islands or State rights in seas and coasts are not sold.

The downside of this project, beyond the political reactions, mainly lies with the «burdens» of the public property, that elevate the "treasure of the 400 billion euros" to the realm of myth.

But even for the best real estate that might fetch a good price even in the current situation – even as collateral since it is not strongly influenced by the economic circle and the recession like Elliniko – the price and profitability of a sale will probably be reduced if fast track procedures with intergovernmental agreements are followed, without international competitions with "privileged" partners from China, Qatar, Dubai etc.