After the agreement: Exit to the markets and debt sustainability

Armed with the distribution of the social dividend from the primary surplus Prime Minister Antonis Samaras attempts of reset the political climate and launches an attack against SYRIZA blaming it for "undermining the national effort."

The political planning has the European elections as its horizon and achieving a manageable result will allow the government the next step which is to settle the state debt. The government's argument is that "Greece is leaving the crisis behind and enters a new era with a visible return to prosperity in the horizon."

The next step will be the Eurogroup in Athens on April 1 that will be a political support for the Greek government. Until the European elections there will be a political promise to settle the total debt, while a visit from Merkel to Athens has also been decided.

During April the government will take the first step to borrowing from the markets in order to strengthen the argument that the troika and the memoranda are past and that the country now relies on its own powers.

The Greek government will strengthen the attack on SYRIZA with the argument that "for its own petty purposes it undermines the achievements of the country."
 

Difficulties

All this does not mean that things for the government are easy. The statements of government officials that highlight the positive agreement with the troika and reiterate that "troika backed off in all the red lines of the government," is indicative. However, it is clear that the government will not distribute 70% of the surplus at will but only 500 million euros. Government officials avoid saying what eventually happened with the structural changes and mainly with milk, drugs, bread and deregulation of professions. In the labour issues they present as a success that even though it was raised by troika and there will be changes, the issue of release of redundancies is transferred to the future.

Indicative of the difficulties is that the government has not yet decided whether the deal will come to parliament in a draft bill with one article or more. If it comes in with more articles there is a risk that MEPs might vote against individual settings. The only certainty is that the draft bill to recapitalize banks, which is already receiving criticism from SYRIZA and the former prime minister and his own MPs will come separately. The Prime Minister will discuss with Vangelis Venizelos at 1.00 PM the internal planning of the next weeks and balances between coalition MPs.

The impression that will prevail in society about whether the deal is a triumph of the Greek government or another retreat to the dictates of the country’s lenders will be judged by the communication battle in the coming period.