Reshuffle in the making

The government is entering a reboot period after Eurostat’s publication of official data on the deficit, which finally “sat” at 10,5% instead of 9,6% as was initially estimated by the Finance ministry. At the same time, Finance minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou was attacked anew by Environment minister Tina Birbili and PASOK congressman Alekos Athanasiadis. Birbili expressed her objection to the legalization of unauthorised structures and Athanasiadis opposed the “utilisation” of a further PPC percentage, whereby the state would lose the majority package. And this was just the beginning…

As the Troika arrival is approaching and the announcement of the mid-term program’s details cannot be delayed, ministers and deputy ministers are openly admitting failure to implement the memorandum targets and the need to change course. The deviation of the deficit brings new measures to collect an additional 5 billion and not one minister seems to be backing off in their refusal to accept further cuts in their portfolio.

First came Birbili. A lot of ministers also seem ready, and will express their displeasure concerning Papakonstantinou’s policy, some of them institutionally, others via interviews and others through leaks.

Most ministers on the other hand, returning from the “cold shower” they experienced in their regions during Easter, appear ready to engage in a new round of introspection. The committees that will convene to discuss individual aspects of the Mid-Term Plan are expected to express harsh views on the economic team. Already, the secretary of the PASOK parliamentary group, Vasilis Exarhos, has assumed the role of “fireman”, but cannot guarantee that he will cope with all situations, especially with the “old dogs" like Vasso Papandreou.

However, government officials do not exclude the fact that thesurprise might come from the PM himself with asudden call for national elections, especially if the climate in the ruling party gets even heavier, since Papandreou knows well that the coming period is very critical and needs a solid parliamentary group. In such a case, one would be expected to see an ace coming out of the PM’s sleeve in order to rally the world of PASOK.

The most probable solution though, and before he gets to such a dramatic move, is a cabinet reshuffle. This would of course mean reshuffling the economy team as well, without excluding the simultaneous switching around of ministers. Papakonstantinou might be taken away from the Finance ministry, but not too far after all…

The creation of a new ministry, i.e. of development of public property or energy, maybe even detached from the Environment, is an option reportedly examined by Papandreou. Also, the presence of Evangelos Venizelos in the core of the economy team would defuse internal reactions for a while and would also create the conditions for a new start. Venizelos is already participating in government meetings and is a part of devising the Mid-term Plan, collaborating more than ever with close associates of the PM. Participation of former government members should not be excluded as well, particularly for those who maintain a certain importance in the party like Giorgos Floridis.

Giannis Ragousis seems to be solid in his position, since his service has so far been assessed as effective, while an upgrade to vice president level would balance many other shifts. Loverdos seems to have many outstanding issues that would not allow him to change ministries, while Diamantopoulou can hope for an upgrade to a more “central” ministry. Giorgos Petalotis’ move might cause the majority of “chain reactions”, since Papandreou seems to trust him in the position of government spokesperson (for which it would be difficult to find a replacement), while on the other hand, he has all the right ingredients to perform well in other difficult positions. The great “slaughter” will happen on the deputy ministers level, especially for those who failed to adapt to the form of government, showed weakness in cooperating with leading ministers or performed below expectations, especially in critical moments.