Samaras’ final moves for the disbursement of the tranche

Prime minister Antonis Samaras has entered the final stretch, intensifying his efforts to finalize the agreement with the Troika and avoid a political accident inside or outside the country.

Having the positive result of the Summit, he is now rushing to ensure the disbursement of the tranche of 31.5 billion euros by November 12, the date of the Eurogroup meeting.

Within the next two days he must come to an agreement with the Troika on the structural measures which include the thorn of labour issues. This was the subject of the broad meeting held at Maximos Mansion involving the economic team, the Minister of Finance and Minister of Administrative Reform.

Labour minister John Vroutsis appeared confident that they are close to an agreement with the Troika, but Finance minister Yannis Stournaras hinted that it is not yet certain whether there will be a teleconference of finance ministers by the end of the week. However, the Euro Working Group will meet on October 29 and examine all the facts.

The package of fiscal and structural measures and the budget of 2013 will have to come to a vote in parliament until November 12. Until then the Troika will also have to prepare its report and make it a positive one towards the restoration of the fiscal stability program and the sustainability of the Greek debt. But here lies the danger of the IMF insisting on its view that the debt is not sustainable without a new haircut, a prospect for which Europe is not ready as it means a revision of its overall policy and additional funding.

The Greek government is not opposed to discussing a new haircut but after the disbursement of the tranches that should come by the end of the year and reach a total of 43 billion euros. As associates of Samaras say, Greece has no reason to raise such an issue, it must take the money and avoid any delays that will put the country in the same frame as Spain. Another change of tactics lies in the issue of  the extension. The government believes that it will be raised by the IMF or Brussels but at a second phase.

Internal incident

The risk of an incident inside the country lies either in not closing the deal because of a dispute between the Troika and the other two leaders or in having significant losses in the vote on the measures. Samaras reacted swiftly and expelled MP Nikos Stavrogiannis, who raised an issue of conscience and warned that he will not vote for the measures. But there still is the warning from Nikitas Kaklamanis that he first wishes to see the whole package of measures and then decide. This is also the view of other ND members. Of course there will be some leaks from DIMAR and possibly from PASOK.

Maximos Mansion is not afraid of failing to achieve a majority of 151 MPs, but if there are many leaks they will undermine the next day of the implementation of the measures as their harshness will deal a blow to the coalition government. Samaras is looking over possible policy initiatives for the formation of a broader coalition excluding, however, the establishment of a new party.