Δολοφονία Καρολάιν

Merkel's rule brings on new measures worth 6 billion

Αφρικανοί κάνουν μεγάλες αγορές με πλαστά ευρώ

A “penance”, with added measures reaching or exceeding 6bn, has been “thrown” at Greek citizens by the new Franco-German...

A “penance”, with added measures reaching or exceeding 6bn, has been “thrown” at Greek citizens by the new Franco-German rule for countries with high deficits. While the measures taken by the government mean that in 2015 the structural deficit will reach 4.8 bn and 6.8bn in 2016, new measures will need to be taken to reduce it to 1bn at most for 2016.

These measures are beyond the “hidden” measures of 2013-2015 that the medium-term plan provides for, but also added to any measures needed to cover the 3bn “black hole” which opened up in 2011.

The introduction of new additional measures is dictated by the “fiscal rule” that the EU seeks to include in our Constitution.

As stated by the Government, the requirement for zero structural deficit (0.5% of the GDP at most) would apply to our country in 2016, after the medium-term program is implemented by 2015. But it does not specify whether to pursue a gradual approach to the target for 2016, with additional operations by 2015, or whether we will have to meet the target in one-go specific measures during 2016. .

What does the new state of things mean? That the "structural deficit" must not exceed 0.5% of the GDP (or about 2 billion a year by today's standards).

The "structural deficit" bears  little relation to the general government deficit as calculated so far by the Government and the Troika. This is a figure which calculates yearly whatever goes in, what goes out and what remains in government funds without applying any emergency measures.

Essentially it shows the “fixed” costs of a state to conserve itself, from its regular income and whatever it needs to borrow yearly. It will also take into account the added tax that the Greek state must meet during the next few years, without taking into consideration primary surpluses and everything else so far portrayed by the Greek side or reviewed and required by the Troika.

Examples of what awaits us, is the evidence from economic forecasts on the "structural deficit" from the International Monetary Fund concerning our country.

While the medium-term estimates a general government deficit of 19.683 billion or 9% of the GDP for this year, the IMF calculates the "structural deficit" (structural deficit) at 15.387 billion (ie 6.76% of the GDP). The European Commission's Spring forecasts calculate the "weighted round deficit '(ie after specific calculations and adjustments to estimated recurring expenditure and removal of exceptional incomes) at 9.361 billion (or 4.3% of the GDP).
 
Unless something changes in the medium term, in 2015 the general government deficit will respectively be 9.623 billion (or 4.2% of thr GDP estimated at 227.5 billion in the medium term). Conversely, however, the IMF estimates that the "structural deficit" will reach 4.756 billion (or 2.09% of the GDP), reaching the significant target of 0.5% of the GDP set by the rule.
 
For 2016, however, theoretically when the measures in the Memorandum would have been concluded, the IMF estimates that the structural deficit will shoot up again to 6.753 billion (ie about 3% of the GDP) while the "rule"  will be requiring the non-exceeding of 1.1 billion at most, and if by then the country has witnessed growth at rates of 2% -3% annually.

As evidenced by Papademos’ communiqués, however, if these “weights” are not covered in any other way, then “automatic measures” will be implemented in order to reduce the deficit, as specified in the new fiscal rules.
Ακολουθήστε το protothema.gr στο Google News και μάθετε πρώτοι όλες τις ειδήσεις

Δείτε όλες τις τελευταίες Ειδήσεις από την Ελλάδα και τον Κόσμο, τη στιγμή που συμβαίνουν, στο Protothema.gr

Ρoή Ειδήσεων

Ειδήσεις Δημοφιλή Σχολιασμένα

Δείτε Επίσης